Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 14 meetings). Barzal wins 42.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Kuraly 50.4% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 22-13 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 97.5%
Defensive zone
Barzal 77.7%
Neutral zone
Barzal 91.5%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 88.7%
88.7%
11.3%
Barzal
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
22
(35 meetings)
13
22
Barzal
Kuraly
Last 10: Barzal 4-6 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
10
6
Barzal
Kuraly
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
13
Barzal
Kuraly
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
3
Barzal
Kuraly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,571)
51.6% (5,161)
-9.7%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
56.4% (101)
-13.0%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
44.4% (1,091)
-2.1%
On power play, Kuraly has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Barzal is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,704).
Barzal shoots right. Kuraly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (2,235).
Home / Away
Barzal
Kuraly
Home
43.2% (1,901)
52.1% (3,205)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
48.8% (3,149)
By Period
Barzal
Kuraly
P1
40.6%
51.2%
P2
44.6%
50.0%
P3
41.1%
50.2%
OT
27.6%
52.3%
Final 5 min
40.0%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
42.0%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 12:50 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:32 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 02:00 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 17:33 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 01:46 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 01:51 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:26 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 13:06 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 1 | 17:48 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 1 | 17:37 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 16, 2021 | 1 | 03:43 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 3 | 08:09 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 3 | 14:51 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 1 | 07:18 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 17:51 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 11:59 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 11:46 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 01:49 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 3 | 10:02 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |