Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +17.8% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 39.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.9% vs Hertl 57.5% (-17.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 62.3%
Defensive zone
Barzal 59.1%
Neutral zone
Barzal 53.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Barzal
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Barzal
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Barzal
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Barzal
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (469)
58.7% (858)
-17.8%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
55.8% (285)
-21.6%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
62.9% (35)
-34.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +34.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Barzal shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Barzal
Hertl
Home
39.2% (250)
60.1% (599)
Away
41.3% (264)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Barzal
Hertl
P1
46.3%
52.4%
P2
36.7%
63.9%
P3
38.5%
58.5%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
41.1%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:50 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:20 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |