Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Barzal wins 42.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Hertl 54.3% (-12.3%)
H2H factor
Barzal leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 82.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 85.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 87.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 84.2%
15.8%
84.2%
Barzal
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
7
(16 meetings)
9
7
Barzal
Hertl
Last 10: Barzal 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
6
3
Barzal
Hertl
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Barzal
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
3
1
Barzal
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,571)
53.9% (8,303)
-12.0%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
59.2% (1,995)
-15.8%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
46.3% (806)
-4.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Barzal is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,704).
Barzal shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Barzal
Hertl
Home
43.2% (1,901)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Barzal
Hertl
P1
40.6%
53.6%
P2
44.6%
54.2%
P3
41.1%
55.3%
OT
27.6%
46.9%
Final 5 min
40.0%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
42.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:50 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:20 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 03:32 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 07:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 09:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 1 | 12:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 07:16 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 03:07 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 18:23 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 01:04 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 3 | 10:10 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 3 | 07:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 12:44 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 03:30 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 13:43 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |