Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kadri on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 21 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kadri shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Kadri 48.6% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Kadri leads 36-31 in 67 meetings
Offensive zone
Kadri 61.5%
Defensive zone
Kadri 64.8%
Neutral zone
Kadri 62.2%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 62.9%
37.1%
62.9%
Duchene
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
36
(67 meetings)
31
36
Duchene
Kadri
Last 10: Duchene 5-5 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
9
12
Duchene
Kadri
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
13
12
Duchene
Kadri
25 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kadri
9
12
Duchene
Kadri
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
48.1% (12,555)
+5.8%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
53.0% (1,892)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
41.0% (293)
+8.1%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Duchene shoots left. Kadri is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,402).
Home / Away
Duchene
Kadri
Home
55.6% (6,430)
49.1% (7,493)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
48.1% (7,250)
By Period
Duchene
Kadri
P1
54.4%
49.1%
P2
54.5%
48.7%
P3
53.4%
47.9%
OT
56.3%
49.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Kadri
32.0%▼
35.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 14:36 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:48 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 11:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:11 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 10:19 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 11:11 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 6, 2025 | OT | 03:23 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 6, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 06:14 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 08:05 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 18:46 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 13:53 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 12:58 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 09:22 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 12:09 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 01:00 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 04:12 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 08:53 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 01:13 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |