Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Dowd 48.6% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 91.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 79.8%
Neutral zone
Duchene 57.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
Duchene
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Duchene
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Duchene
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
51.0% (671)
+0.1%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
0.0% (2)
+61.5%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
41.5% (224)
-24.8%
On power play, Duchene has a +61.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Duchene shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Duchene
Dowd
Home
51.7% (201)
48.2% (471)
Away
52.5% (236)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Duchene
Dowd
P1
49.0%
48.3%
P2
57.1%
46.8%
P3
49.2%
51.0%
OT
60.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 07:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 14:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 07:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |