Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 14 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Dowd 50.7% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 19-12 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 93.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 65.8%
Neutral zone
Duchene 71.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 79.9%
79.9%
20.1%
Duchene
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
12
(31 meetings)
19
12
Duchene
Dowd
Last 10: Duchene 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
13
1
Duchene
Dowd
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
8
Duchene
Dowd
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
3
Duchene
Dowd
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
52.3% (6,036)
+1.6%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
56.1% (164)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
44.1% (1,638)
+5.0%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,518).
Duchene shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Home / Away
Duchene
Dowd
Home
55.6% (6,430)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Duchene
Dowd
P1
54.4%
51.5%
P2
54.5%
50.4%
P3
53.4%
50.3%
OT
56.3%
45.9%
Final 5 min
53.7%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 07:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 14:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 07:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 3 | 07:39 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 1 | 14:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 14:01 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 08:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 05:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 14:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 12:19 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 09:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 07:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 02:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 13:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 13:47 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 14:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 11:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 08:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |