Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bonino on defensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 12 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Bonino 50.0% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Bonino leads 27-20 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
Bonino 59.1%
Defensive zone
Bonino 82.8%
Neutral zone
Bonino 66.2%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 67.1%
32.9%
67.1%
Duchene
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
27
(47 meetings)
20
27
Duchene
Bonino
Last 10: Duchene 5-5 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
13
9
Duchene
Bonino
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
1
11
Duchene
Bonino
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bonino
6
7
Duchene
Bonino
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
50.6% (8,315)
+3.3%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
54.1% (972)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
44.6% (1,693)
+4.5%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Duchene shoots left. Bonino is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (6,917).
Home / Away
Duchene
Bonino
Home
55.6% (6,430)
51.2% (5,507)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
48.8% (5,480)
By Period
Duchene
Bonino
P1
54.4%
50.6%
P2
54.5%
48.5%
P3
53.4%
51.1%
OT
56.3%
45.7%
Final 5 min
53.7%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2022 | 3 | 13:17 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 05:23 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 2 | 14:40 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 1 | 07:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 11:52 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 11:37 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 2 | 07:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 3 | 12:36 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 3 | 12:29 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 2 | 13:48 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 2 | 13:43 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 2 | 05:47 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 1 | 13:18 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 1 | 09:28 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 8, 2018 | 3 | 12:58 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 8, 2018 | 2 | 17:55 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 8, 2018 | 2 | 14:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 8, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 9, 2017 | 3 | 01:12 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |