Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Cates 45.5% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 73.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 62.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 58.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 68.6%
68.6%
31.4%
Duchene
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Duchene
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
45.5% (756)
+5.6%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
42.1% (114)
+19.4%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
44.7% (47)
-28.0%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +28.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Duchene shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Duchene
Cates
Home
51.7% (201)
46.2% (468)
Away
52.5% (236)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Duchene
Cates
P1
49.0%
46.0%
P2
57.1%
47.5%
P3
49.2%
42.1%
OT
60.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
51.9%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 03:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 01:07 | Offensive | Noah Cates |