Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Acciari 50.8% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 90.4%
Defensive zone
Acciari 81.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 51.2%
Result
Noel Acciari favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
Duchene
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Duchene
Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Acciari
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Acciari
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
52.7% (313)
-1.6%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
33.3% (18)
+28.2%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
49.7% (195)
-33.0%
On penalty kill, Acciari has a +33.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Duchene shoots left. Acciari is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Duchene
Acciari
Home
51.7% (201)
52.6% (291)
Away
52.5% (236)
48.9% (235)
By Period
Duchene
Acciari
P1
49.0%
53.7%
P2
57.1%
51.1%
P3
49.2%
48.5%
OT
60.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
51.9%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Acciari
44.0%▬
44.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 18:40 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 16:38 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 11:01 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |