Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Acciari on defensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 20 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Acciari shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Acciari 51.2% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Acciari leads 23-16 in 39 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 57.7%
Defensive zone
Acciari 91.2%
Neutral zone
Acciari 64.9%
Result
Noel Acciari favored at 70.8%
29.2%
70.8%
Duchene
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
23
(39 meetings)
16
23
Duchene
Acciari
Last 10: Duchene 6-4 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
11
2
Duchene
Acciari
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Acciari
3
17
Duchene
Acciari
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Acciari
2
4
Duchene
Acciari
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
52.8% (3,304)
+1.1%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
48.3% (87)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
47.0% (1,073)
+2.1%
On power play, Duchene has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,518).
Duchene shoots left. Acciari is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,268).
Home / Away
Duchene
Acciari
Home
55.6% (6,430)
51.9% (2,139)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
50.7% (2,325)
By Period
Duchene
Acciari
P1
54.4%
52.3%
P2
54.5%
51.5%
P3
53.4%
50.2%
OT
56.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Acciari
44.0%▬
44.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 18:40 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 16:38 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 11:01 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 15:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 15:05 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 05:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 06:50 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:43 | Offensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 14:02 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 1 | 04:32 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 2 | 15:42 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 03:42 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 10:26 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 2 | 14:14 | Offensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 5, 2021 | 3 | 16:48 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Feb 5, 2021 | 3 | 10:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 2 | 19:54 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |