Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.0%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Zacha 51.8% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 69.7%
Defensive zone
Zacha 66.6%
Neutral zone
Zacha 53.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 69.7%
69.7%
30.3%
Duchene
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Duchene
Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
53.0% (700)
-1.9%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
54.1% (109)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
39.2% (74)
-22.5%
On penalty kill, Zacha has a +22.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Duchene shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Home / Away
Duchene
Zacha
Home
51.7% (201)
51.6% (438)
Away
52.5% (236)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Duchene
Zacha
P1
49.0%
57.0%
P2
57.1%
48.9%
P3
49.2%
50.5%
OT
60.0%
42.1%
Final 5 min
51.9%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 00:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |