Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Zacha 49.2% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 91.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 80.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 88.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 88.8%
88.8%
11.2%
Duchene
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
4
(16 meetings)
12
4
Duchene
Zacha
Last 10: Duchene 7-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
7
2
Duchene
Zacha
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Zacha
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
48.9% (5,156)
+5.0%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
55.7% (813)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
42.2% (557)
+6.9%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Duchene shoots left. Zacha is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,965).
Home / Away
Duchene
Zacha
Home
55.6% (6,430)
49.7% (3,381)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
48.6% (3,145)
By Period
Duchene
Zacha
P1
54.4%
49.9%
P2
54.5%
49.2%
P3
53.4%
48.2%
OT
56.3%
53.5%
Final 5 min
53.7%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 00:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 2 | 19:30 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 21, 2018 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 21, 2018 | 2 | 06:06 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 21, 2018 | 2 | 01:52 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 21, 2018 | 1 | 06:04 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 21, 2018 | 1 | 01:22 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 6, 2018 | 3 | 05:12 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2018 | 2 | 16:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2018 | 1 | 15:52 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2018 | 1 | 08:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2018 | 1 | 08:31 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 7, 2017 | 2 | 17:44 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 14, 2017 | 2 | 05:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |