Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +16.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Rakell 40.7% (+16.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 77.1%
Defensive zone
Duchene 80.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 63.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 80.1%
80.1%
19.9%
Duchene
Rakell
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Duchene
Rakell
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Rakell
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Rakell
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
35.3% (136)
+15.8%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
43.8% (32)
+17.7%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
0.0% (7)
+16.7%
On power play, Duchene has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rakell shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Duchene shoots left. Rakell is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (100).
Home / Away
Duchene
Rakell
Home
51.7% (201)
41.5% (82)
Away
52.5% (236)
30.1% (93)
By Period
Duchene
Rakell
P1
49.0%
35.6%
P2
57.1%
37.3%
P3
49.2%
31.1%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Rakell
38.0%▲
35.0%
35.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 13:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |