Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Rakell shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Rakell 44.8% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 79.6%
Defensive zone
Duchene 88.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 82.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 83.9%
83.9%
16.1%
Duchene
Rakell
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
8
(19 meetings)
11
8
Duchene
Rakell
Last 10: Duchene 5-5 Rakell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rakell
1
6
Duchene
Rakell
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
8
0
Duchene
Rakell
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Duchene
Rakell
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Rakell
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
44.2% (1,886)
+9.7%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
50.2% (203)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
21.7% (23)
+27.4%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +27.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rakell shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,518).
Duchene shoots left. Rakell is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,344).
Home / Away
Duchene
Rakell
Home
55.6% (6,430)
46.6% (1,055)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
42.4% (1,058)
By Period
Duchene
Rakell
P1
54.4%
45.6%
P2
54.5%
41.9%
P3
53.4%
46.1%
OT
56.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Rakell
38.0%▲
35.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 13:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 3 | 16:23 | Offensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 3 | 16:14 | Offensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 3 | 16:10 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 3 | 16:04 | Offensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 3 | 04:04 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Oct 16, 2015 | 3 | 12:30 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 16, 2015 | 3 | 02:38 | Neutral | Rickard Rakell |
| Oct 16, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 16, 2015 | 2 | 11:03 | Offensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Oct 16, 2015 | 2 | 08:24 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 16, 2015 | 1 | 05:48 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 16, 2015 | 1 | 03:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 16, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Rickard Rakell |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 11:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 00:48 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 20, 2015 | 3 | 10:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 20, 2015 | 3 | 08:31 | Offensive | Rickard Rakell |