Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Hartman 45.6% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 53.1%
Defensive zone
Hartman 62.4%
Neutral zone
Hartman 61.5%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Duchene
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Duchene
Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
2
Duchene
Hartman
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Hartman
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
45.1% (874)
+6.0%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
47.4% (95)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
37.5% (16)
-20.8%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Duchene shoots left. Hartman is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Duchene
Hartman
Home
51.7% (201)
45.0% (515)
Away
52.5% (236)
45.3% (470)
By Period
Duchene
Hartman
P1
49.0%
47.3%
P2
57.1%
40.1%
P3
49.2%
48.3%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:06 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 16:33 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |