Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Hartman 45.4% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 18-11 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 92.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 84.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 90.3%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 89.9%
89.9%
10.1%
Duchene
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
11
(29 meetings)
18
11
Duchene
Hartman
Last 10: Duchene 4-6 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
5
7
Duchene
Hartman
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
2
Duchene
Hartman
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
8
2
Duchene
Hartman
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
45.2% (4,279)
+8.7%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
47.3% (446)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
42.4% (262)
+6.7%
On power play, Duchene has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,518).
Duchene shoots left. Hartman is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (3,596).
Home / Away
Duchene
Hartman
Home
55.6% (6,430)
46.7% (2,589)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
43.7% (2,398)
By Period
Duchene
Hartman
P1
54.4%
46.1%
P2
54.5%
42.9%
P3
53.4%
46.7%
OT
56.3%
53.8%
Final 5 min
53.7%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:06 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 16:33 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 05:23 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 02:48 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 02:38 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:28 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 13:52 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 18:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 13:29 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 07:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 1 | 11:29 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 14:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 11:24 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 07:32 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2 | 17:19 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2 | 04:09 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |