Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs McLeod 47.4% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 66.7%
Defensive zone
McLeod 80.1%
Neutral zone
McLeod 60.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 66.7%
66.7%
33.3%
Duchene
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Duchene
McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Duchene
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
49.0% (827)
+2.1%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
44.0% (91)
+17.5%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
43.0% (272)
-26.3%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +26.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Duchene shoots left. McLeod is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (775).
Home / Away
Duchene
McLeod
Home
51.7% (201)
48.5% (619)
Away
52.5% (236)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Duchene
McLeod
P1
49.0%
52.7%
P2
57.1%
43.9%
P3
49.2%
45.8%
OT
60.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
51.9%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:52 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |