Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs McLeod 49.5% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 92.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 70.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 85.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 84.1%
84.1%
15.9%
Duchene
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Duchene
McLeod
Last 10: Duchene 7-3 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
McLeod
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
McLeod
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
50.4% (3,376)
+3.5%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
50.7% (296)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
44.1% (644)
+5.0%
On power play, Duchene has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Duchene shoots left. McLeod is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,809).
Home / Away
Duchene
McLeod
Home
55.6% (6,430)
50.0% (2,202)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
48.9% (2,114)
By Period
Duchene
McLeod
P1
54.4%
50.8%
P2
54.5%
48.0%
P3
53.4%
50.0%
OT
56.3%
37.1%
Final 5 min
53.7%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:52 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 11:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 3 | 14:21 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 19:04 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 06:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 06:55 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 16:06 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 11:29 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 16:28 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |