Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Kuraly 51.0% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 79.5%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 78.5%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 55.7%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Duchene
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Duchene
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Duchene
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
52.6% (464)
-1.5%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
100.0% (1)
-38.5%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
46.5% (155)
-29.8%
On power play, Kuraly has a +38.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Duchene shoots left. Kuraly is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Duchene
Kuraly
Home
51.7% (201)
55.9% (322)
Away
52.5% (236)
46.0% (298)
By Period
Duchene
Kuraly
P1
49.0%
55.9%
P2
57.1%
46.7%
P3
49.2%
50.7%
OT
60.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 09:44 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |