Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Kuraly 50.4% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 18-17 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 88.1%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 80.4%
Neutral zone
Duchene 58.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Duchene
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
17
(35 meetings)
18
17
Duchene
Kuraly
Last 10: Duchene 8-2 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
9
0
Duchene
Kuraly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
12
Duchene
Kuraly
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
8
5
Duchene
Kuraly
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
51.6% (5,161)
+2.3%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
56.4% (101)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
44.4% (1,091)
+4.7%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Duchene shoots left. Kuraly is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (4,119).
Home / Away
Duchene
Kuraly
Home
55.6% (6,430)
52.1% (3,205)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
48.8% (3,149)
By Period
Duchene
Kuraly
P1
54.4%
51.2%
P2
54.5%
50.0%
P3
53.4%
50.2%
OT
56.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 09:44 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 05:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 15:54 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 10:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 15:35 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 10:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 1 | 13:08 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 1 | 03:46 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 16:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 3 | 14:43 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 10:54 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 1 | 19:49 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 19:12 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2019 | OT | 02:34 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 16, 2019 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 3 | 05:08 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 3 | 01:08 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 10:49 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 07:28 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |