Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Aho 53.8% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 69.7%
Defensive zone
Aho 51.9%
Neutral zone
Aho 51.5%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Duchene
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Duchene
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Duchene
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Duchene
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
51.2% (785)
+5.3%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
63.8% (213)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
57.9% (57)
-35.7%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +35.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Duchene shoots left. Aho is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
Duchene
Aho
Home
56.6% (318)
54.9% (548)
Away
56.4% (319)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Duchene
Aho
P1
57.2%
52.8%
P2
55.1%
58.9%
P3
55.6%
50.6%
OT
81.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
56.5%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 03:17 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 10:35 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 11:56 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 01:33 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |