Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Aho 50.5% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 54.8%
Defensive zone
Duchene 57.4%
Neutral zone
Aho 55.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Duchene
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Duchene
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
50.5% (878)
+0.6%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
53.5% (144)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
44.3% (61)
-27.6%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +27.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Duchene shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Duchene
Aho
Home
51.7% (201)
53.8% (571)
Away
52.5% (236)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Duchene
Aho
P1
49.0%
49.0%
P2
57.1%
51.7%
P3
49.2%
50.3%
OT
60.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
51.9%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 19:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |