Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Poitras wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poitras 45.3% vs Hertl 54.3% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Poitras 79.1%
Defensive zone
Poitras 77.5%
Neutral zone
Poitras 78.0%
Result
Matthew Poitras favored at 78.2%
78.2%
21.8%
Poitras
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Poitras
Hertl
Last 10: Poitras 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Poitras
3
2
Poitras
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Poitras
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Poitras
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poitras
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (388)
53.9% (8,303)
-10.3%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
59.2% (1,995)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (3)
46.3% (806)
+20.4%
On penalty kill, Poitras has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Poitras is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (283).
Poitras shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Poitras
Hertl
Home
43.6% (195)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
44.7% (206)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Poitras
Hertl
P1
42.6%
53.6%
P2
45.5%
54.2%
P3
44.1%
55.3%
Final 5 min
41.2%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poitras
42.0%▼
44.5%
44.1%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 06:14 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 05:58 | Offensive | Matthew Poitras |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 02:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 02:11 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 09:31 | Defensive | Matthew Poitras |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 05:00 | Offensive | Matthew Poitras |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 02:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 11:33 | Offensive | Matthew Poitras |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 06:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 17:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |