Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Beniers wins 43.9% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 48.8% vs Roy 51.9% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beniers 56.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 82.1%
Neutral zone
Roy 65.7%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 68.4%
31.6%
68.4%
Beniers
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Beniers
Roy
Last 8: Beniers 5-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Beniers
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
3
1
Beniers
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Beniers
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (862)
51.9% (547)
-3.6%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
54.1% (37)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
53.3% (92)
-3.3%
On power play, Beniers has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Beniers is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Beniers shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Home / Away
Beniers
Roy
Home
52.4% (460)
54.0% (328)
Away
45.1% (470)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Beniers
Roy
P1
47.5%
53.5%
P2
50.6%
51.6%
P3
47.6%
51.6%
Final 5 min
45.1%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 19:02 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 03:10 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 17:29 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 17:07 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 09:26 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:40 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 16:44 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |