Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 48.8% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Beniers leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 60.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 60.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 66.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 62.9%
37.1%
62.9%
Beniers
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Beniers
O'Reilly
Last 10: Beniers 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
1
Beniers
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
3
1
Beniers
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Beniers
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (862)
55.7% (856)
-7.4%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
57.5% (233)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
50.0% (144)
+0.0%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Beniers is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (634).
Beniers shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Beniers
O'Reilly
Home
52.4% (460)
55.5% (616)
Away
45.1% (470)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Beniers
O'Reilly
P1
47.5%
58.1%
P2
50.6%
54.9%
P3
47.6%
53.9%
OT
62.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.1%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 05:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 17:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 12:11 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 06:14 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 03:19 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:54 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 19:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 09:01 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:43 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |