Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 46.6% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Beniers leads 19-14 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 81.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 89.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 90.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 86.5%
13.5%
86.5%
Beniers
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
14
(33 meetings)
19
14
Beniers
O'Reilly
Last 10: Beniers 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
8
4
Beniers
O'Reilly
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
5
Beniers
O'Reilly
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
7
5
Beniers
O'Reilly
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (3,825)
56.2% (15,290)
-9.7%
Power Play
47.8% (360)
58.7% (3,457)
-10.9%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (111)
51.4% (2,826)
-10.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Beniers is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,839).
Beniers shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Beniers
O'Reilly
Home
48.9% (2,195)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
44.0% (2,101)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Beniers
O'Reilly
P1
47.2%
55.6%
P2
47.0%
57.0%
P3
45.7%
55.0%
OT
34.8%
62.2%
Final 5 min
46.1%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 05:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 17:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 12:11 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 06:14 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 03:19 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:54 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 19:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 09:01 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:43 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 07:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 16:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 06:03 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 2 | 15:55 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 13:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 17:17 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 18:32 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |