Mavrik Bourque vs Mikael Backlund
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bourque wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.2% vs Backlund 49.0% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 50.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 50.5%
Neutral zone
Backlund 51.0%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Bourque
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Bourque
Backlund
Last 9: Bourque 4-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Bourque
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Bourque
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bourque
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (513)
49.7% (13,463)
-3.1%
Power Play
26.1% (23)
51.5% (1,338)
-25.4%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (28)
43.9% (2,465)
-1.0%
On power play, Backlund has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Bourque is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (425).
Bourque shoots right. Backlund is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (6,251).
Home / Away
Bourque
Backlund
Home
47.1% (263)
49.7% (8,621)
Away
44.2% (301)
48.3% (8,650)
By Period
Bourque
Backlund
P1
42.7%
48.5%
P2
42.8%
50.3%
P3
50.2%
48.4%
OT
0.0%
45.1%
Final 5 min
52.0%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
45.6%
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 09:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 05:46 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 05:43 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 15:05 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 02:05 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 02:01 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 10:08 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 04:50 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 08:46 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |