Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Bourque wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.5% vs Frost 56.4% (-12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 93.5%
Defensive zone
Frost 56.7%
Neutral zone
Frost 75.9%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Bourque
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Bourque
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
1
0
Bourque
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (186)
56.0% (755)
-9.2%
Power Play
23.5% (17)
60.1% (173)
-36.6%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
88.9% (9)
-46.0%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +46.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Bourque is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (152).
Bourque shoots right. Frost is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
Bourque
Frost
Home
41.5% (106)
57.3% (497)
Away
48.1% (104)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Bourque
Frost
P1
40.6%
60.2%
P2
39.0%
56.0%
P3
51.7%
54.8%
Final 5 min
44.4%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
44.8%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:59 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |