Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Bourque wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.2% vs Frost 50.6% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 63.3%
Defensive zone
Bourque 78.8%
Neutral zone
Bourque 60.7%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Bourque
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Bourque
Frost
Last 9: Bourque 4-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
4
Bourque
Frost
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
2
0
Bourque
Frost
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bourque
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (513)
49.7% (3,652)
-3.1%
Power Play
26.1% (23)
55.4% (632)
-29.3%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (28)
55.0% (40)
-12.1%
On power play, Frost has a +29.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Bourque is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (425).
Bourque shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,481).
Home / Away
Bourque
Frost
Home
47.1% (263)
51.4% (2,101)
Away
44.2% (301)
49.8% (2,223)
By Period
Bourque
Frost
P1
42.7%
51.2%
P2
42.8%
51.3%
P3
50.2%
48.8%
OT
0.0%
64.9%
Final 5 min
52.0%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
45.6%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:59 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 12:55 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 01:41 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 17:04 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 6, 2025 | OT | 02:50 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:38 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 07:40 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:09 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |