Scouting Report
Mavrik Bourque holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bourque wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.2% vs Kelly 41.7% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 62.1%
Defensive zone
Bourque 51.0%
Neutral zone
Bourque 56.1%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Bourque
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Bourque
Kelly
Last 5: Bourque 3-2 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
2
Bourque
Kelly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
1
0
Bourque
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bourque
1
0
Bourque
Kelly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (513)
42.0% (758)
+4.6%
Power Play
26.1% (23)
0.0% (3)
+26.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (28)
36.8% (174)
+6.1%
On power play, Bourque has a +26.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Bourque is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (425).
Bourque shoots right. Kelly is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Bourque
Kelly
Home
47.1% (263)
42.4% (476)
Away
44.2% (301)
39.2% (459)
By Period
Bourque
Kelly
P1
42.7%
42.3%
P2
42.8%
44.7%
P3
50.2%
35.6%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
45.6%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 19:29 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 17:43 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:30 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:42 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |