Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Bourque wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.5% vs Donato 47.1% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 60.3%
Defensive zone
Bourque 56.6%
Neutral zone
Bourque 53.2%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
Bourque
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Bourque
Donato
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Bourque
Donato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Bourque
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (186)
46.8% (297)
+0.0%
Power Play
23.5% (17)
41.0% (39)
-17.5%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
100.0% (1)
-57.1%
On penalty kill, Donato has a +57.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Bourque is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (152).
Bourque shoots right. Donato is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Bourque
Donato
Home
41.5% (106)
45.8% (142)
Away
48.1% (104)
46.7% (195)
By Period
Bourque
Donato
P1
40.6%
49.5%
P2
39.0%
45.7%
P3
51.7%
43.4%
Final 5 min
44.4%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
44.8%
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:20 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |