Scouting Report
Mavrik Bourque holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Bourque wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.2% vs Donato 44.7% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 82.7%
Defensive zone
Bourque 67.3%
Neutral zone
Donato 56.4%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
Bourque
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Bourque
Donato
Last 8: Bourque 3-5 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Bourque
Donato
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bourque
Donato
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
0
2
Bourque
Donato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (513)
44.0% (1,218)
+2.6%
Power Play
26.1% (23)
46.0% (248)
-19.9%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (28)
41.7% (12)
+1.2%
On power play, Donato has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Bourque is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (425).
Bourque shoots right. Donato is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (569).
Home / Away
Bourque
Donato
Home
47.1% (263)
47.2% (743)
Away
44.2% (301)
41.4% (735)
By Period
Bourque
Donato
P1
42.7%
43.8%
P2
42.8%
44.9%
P3
50.2%
43.7%
OT
0.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
45.6%
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
44.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:20 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 16:27 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 03:06 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 02:32 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 02:28 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 11:18 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 11:59 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |