Mavrik Bourque vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Bourque wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.5% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 63.7%
Defensive zone
Bourque 59.4%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 52.5%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bourque
1
0
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (186)
46.0% (250)
+0.8%
Power Play
23.5% (17)
70.6% (17)
-47.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
31.8% (22)
+11.1%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +47.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Bourque is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (152).
Bourque shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
41.5% (106)
50.3% (175)
Away
48.1% (104)
40.4% (114)
By Period
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
40.6%
48.5%
P2
39.0%
45.9%
P3
51.7%
46.5%
Final 5 min
44.4%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
44.8%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |