Mavrik Bourque vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.5% vs 44.7%). Bourque wins 43.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.2% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.7% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 70.6%
Defensive zone
Bourque 51.5%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 60.7%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 5: Bourque 0-5 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
2
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
2
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
1
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (494)
44.9% (8,714)
+1.5%
Power Play
21.4% (14)
50.3% (829)
-28.9%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
37.8% (875)
+4.5%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +28.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Bourque is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (400).
Bourque shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,625).
Home / Away
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
47.1% (242)
46.4% (5,318)
Away
44.2% (292)
42.9% (5,112)
By Period
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
42.7%
45.1%
P2
42.7%
43.8%
P3
50.2%
45.2%
OT
0.0%
43.5%
Final 5 min
50.8%
43.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
48.0%▲
43.5%
45.5%
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:24 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 11:21 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 09:05 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 08:59 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |