Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Bourque wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.2% vs Nosek 53.6% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 70.9%
Defensive zone
Bourque 72.8%
Neutral zone
Bourque 73.4%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 72.2%
72.2%
27.8%
Bourque
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Bourque
Nosek
Last 5: Bourque 1-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
2
Bourque
Nosek
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bourque
Nosek
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
Bourque
Nosek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (513)
54.9% (2,710)
-8.3%
Power Play
26.1% (23)
45.8% (48)
-19.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (28)
47.2% (428)
-4.3%
On power play, Nosek has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Bourque is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (425).
Bourque shoots right. Nosek is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,227).
Home / Away
Bourque
Nosek
Home
47.1% (263)
52.8% (1,656)
Away
44.2% (301)
54.7% (1,530)
By Period
Bourque
Nosek
P1
42.7%
52.2%
P2
42.8%
54.1%
P3
50.2%
54.7%
OT
0.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
45.6%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 05:33 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 02:03 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2 | 01:58 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 1 | 18:31 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |