Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.8% vs 51.1%). Domi wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Domi 50.6% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 73.9%
Defensive zone
Domi 61.3%
Neutral zone
Domi 53.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 73.9%
26.1%
73.9%
Domi
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Domi
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Domi
1
0
Domi
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Domi
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (297)
49.7% (1,038)
+0.1%
Power Play
60.0% (30)
63.7% (157)
-3.7%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Domi is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (109).
Domi shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Domi
MacKinnon
Home
51.1% (184)
53.1% (618)
Away
50.3% (143)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Domi
MacKinnon
P1
45.9%
49.3%
P2
51.8%
53.0%
P3
55.1%
50.7%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
39.7%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Domi
46.0%▼
51.0%
50.8%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 02:26 | Offensive | Max Domi |