Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.7% vs McCarron 52.1% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
McCarron 54.1%
Defensive zone
McCarron 93.2%
Neutral zone
McCarron 84.2%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 86.6%
13.4%
86.6%
Tavares
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
12
(16 meetings)
4
12
Tavares
McCarron
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
McCarron
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
9
Tavares
McCarron
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
3
Tavares
McCarron
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (956)
52.8% (697)
+4.9%
Power Play
55.7% (244)
18.2% (11)
+37.5%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
52.6% (211)
-0.4%
On power play, Tavares has a +37.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Tavares shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
Home / Away
Tavares
McCarron
Home
57.4% (636)
52.8% (477)
Away
57.1% (587)
51.8% (442)
By Period
Tavares
McCarron
P1
57.1%
56.2%
P2
57.0%
52.4%
P3
57.6%
48.7%
OT
57.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.6%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 17:18 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 12:42 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 12:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:43 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:38 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 17:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 04:56 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 15:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 11:53 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 11:54 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 03:28 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 03:21 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 13:34 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 02:25 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |