Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). McCarron wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.1% vs Frost 56.3% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 97.0%
Defensive zone
McCarron 64.2%
Neutral zone
Frost 80.7%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
McCarron
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
McCarron
Frost
Last 10: McCarron 6-4 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
3
McCarron
Frost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
6
1
McCarron
Frost
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
0
McCarron
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (697)
55.8% (745)
-3.0%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
60.5% (172)
-42.3%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (211)
88.9% (9)
-36.3%
On power play, Frost has a +42.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
McCarron shoots right. Frost is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
McCarron
Frost
Home
52.8% (477)
57.3% (497)
Away
51.8% (442)
56.6% (429)
By Period
McCarron
Frost
P1
56.2%
60.1%
P2
52.4%
56.0%
P3
48.7%
54.7%
OT
0.0%
63.6%
Final 5 min
50.9%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Frost
68.0%▲
62.0%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 16:44 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 16:38 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 02:05 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 06:57 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 19:21 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 04:33 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 04:19 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 17:07 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 12:48 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:30 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 04:15 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |