Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McCarron wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.1% vs Greig 51.1% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Greig 58.1%
Defensive zone
Greig 53.5%
Neutral zone
McCarron 50.0%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
McCarron
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
McCarron
Greig
Last 5: McCarron 0-5 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
3
McCarron
Greig
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
2
McCarron
Greig
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (697)
51.9% (347)
+0.9%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
66.7% (24)
-48.5%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (211)
44.8% (87)
+7.8%
On power play, Greig has a +48.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
McCarron shoots right. Greig is 58.2% vs right-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
McCarron
Greig
Home
52.8% (477)
50.4% (254)
Away
51.8% (442)
52.5% (204)
By Period
McCarron
Greig
P1
56.2%
45.9%
P2
52.4%
60.1%
P3
48.7%
49.2%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 17:42 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 18:50 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 06:09 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 17:30 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 17:15 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |