Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.1% vs Hartman 45.6% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 70.3%
Defensive zone
McCarron 83.0%
Neutral zone
McCarron 57.6%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
McCarron
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
McCarron
Hartman
Last 10: McCarron 5-5 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
4
McCarron
Hartman
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
0
McCarron
Hartman
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
1
McCarron
Hartman
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (697)
45.1% (874)
+7.7%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
47.4% (95)
-29.2%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (211)
37.5% (16)
+15.1%
On power play, Hartman has a +29.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. McCarron is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (274).
McCarron shoots right. Hartman is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (294).
Home / Away
McCarron
Hartman
Home
52.8% (477)
45.0% (515)
Away
51.8% (442)
45.3% (470)
By Period
McCarron
Hartman
P1
56.2%
47.3%
P2
52.4%
40.1%
P3
48.7%
48.3%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 14:34 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 07:44 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:30 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 10:58 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 17:07 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 12:20 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 01:01 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 19:59 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:00 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:49 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |