Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. McCarron wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.1% vs Kuraly 51.0% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 51.8%
Defensive zone
McCarron 56.4%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 51.4%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
McCarron
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
McCarron
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
0
McCarron
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
McCarron
Kuraly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (697)
52.6% (464)
+0.2%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
100.0% (1)
-81.8%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (211)
46.5% (155)
+6.1%
On power play, Kuraly has a +81.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
McCarron shoots right. Kuraly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (235).
Home / Away
McCarron
Kuraly
Home
52.8% (477)
55.9% (322)
Away
51.8% (442)
46.0% (298)
By Period
McCarron
Kuraly
P1
56.2%
55.9%
P2
52.4%
46.7%
P3
48.7%
50.7%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 19:26 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 03:09 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 02:44 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |