Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.3% vs 52.7%). Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McCarron wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.1% vs Monahan 52.5% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 78.2%
Defensive zone
McCarron 79.3%
Neutral zone
Monahan 53.5%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
McCarron
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
McCarron
Monahan
Last 7: McCarron 3-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
McCarron
Monahan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
0
McCarron
Monahan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
McCarron
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (697)
53.0% (874)
-0.2%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
54.7% (161)
-36.5%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (211)
47.5% (101)
+5.1%
On power play, Monahan has a +36.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
McCarron shoots right. Monahan is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (426).
Home / Away
McCarron
Monahan
Home
52.8% (477)
53.8% (558)
Away
51.8% (442)
51.7% (578)
By Period
McCarron
Monahan
P1
56.2%
49.5%
P2
52.4%
54.8%
P3
48.7%
52.8%
OT
0.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
50.9%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:06 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 05:36 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |