Michael McCarron vs Sebastian Aho
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.6% vs Aho 51.3% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 12-6 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 85.6%
Defensive zone
McCarron 84.4%
Neutral zone
Aho 52.6%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
McCarron
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
6
(18 meetings)
12
6
McCarron
Aho
Last 10: McCarron 8-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
6
McCarron
Aho
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
7
0
McCarron
Aho
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
0
McCarron
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (2,926)
50.2% (6,646)
+3.1%
Power Play
45.3% (86)
58.9% (1,310)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
50.1% (469)
46.5% (465)
+3.6%
On power play, Aho has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McCarron is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,425).
McCarron shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,104).
Home / Away
McCarron
Aho
Home
52.3% (1,696)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
53.1% (1,785)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
McCarron
Aho
P1
53.8%
51.1%
P2
52.3%
52.1%
P3
51.9%
50.8%
OT
33.3%
48.9%
Final 5 min
50.4%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.7%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 11:42 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 18:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 18:44 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 13:54 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 09:07 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 04:02 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:08 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 17:14 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 09:45 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 10:48 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 07:31 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 07:18 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:15 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 06:51 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 10:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 16:09 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 18, 2022 | 2 | 16:48 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |