Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.8% vs Frost 56.4% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 72.0%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 78.8%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 55.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Zibanejad
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Zibanejad
Frost
Last 10: Zibanejad 4-6 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
5
Zibanejad
Frost
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
2
1
Zibanejad
Frost
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Zibanejad
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (807)
56.0% (755)
-2.7%
Power Play
47.6% (42)
60.1% (173)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (147)
88.9% (9)
-42.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +42.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (729).
Zibanejad shoots right. Frost is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Frost
Home
49.8% (466)
57.3% (497)
Away
54.0% (530)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Zibanejad
Frost
P1
52.9%
60.2%
P2
51.2%
56.0%
P3
51.7%
54.8%
OT
60.0%
63.6%
Final 5 min
57.0%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 18:34 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 05:14 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 01:52 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 06:17 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 06:09 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 04:47 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 17:28 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 14:26 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 09:00 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 04:16 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |