Mika Zibanejad vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.0% vs 51.1%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.8% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 72.6%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 70.1%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 50.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Zibanejad
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Zibanejad
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Zibanejad
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Zibanejad
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (807)
49.7% (1,038)
+3.6%
Power Play
47.6% (42)
63.7% (157)
-16.1%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (147)
34.4% (32)
+11.9%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Zibanejad is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Zibanejad shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
MacKinnon
Home
49.8% (466)
53.1% (618)
Away
54.0% (530)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Zibanejad
MacKinnon
P1
52.9%
49.3%
P2
51.2%
53.0%
P3
51.7%
50.7%
OT
60.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:44 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 07:57 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:24 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:49 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |