Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on offensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 50.0% vs Paul 52.2% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 23-17 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 50.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 66.7%
Neutral zone
Paul 58.5%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Zibanejad
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
17
(40 meetings)
23
17
Zibanejad
Paul
Last 10: Zibanejad 7-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
13
4
Zibanejad
Paul
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
4
7
Zibanejad
Paul
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
6
6
Zibanejad
Paul
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (11,756)
52.6% (3,823)
-1.7%
Power Play
52.2% (1,852)
56.2% (484)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (1,796)
46.9% (576)
-5.3%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Zibanejad is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (10,710).
Zibanejad shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,791).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Paul
Home
51.6% (7,603)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
48.3% (7,802)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Zibanejad
Paul
P1
50.4%
53.8%
P2
49.7%
51.0%
P3
49.9%
52.2%
OT
48.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
50.0%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:56 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 3 | 04:27 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 2 | 18:19 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 18:13 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 14:52 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 10:45 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 06:45 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 11:27 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 16:27 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:59 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 2 | 13:02 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 18:52 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 00:39 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 5, 2023 | 3 | 11:38 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 5, 2023 | 1 | 07:55 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 5, 2023 | 1 | 07:41 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 11, 2022 | 3 | 13:07 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 11, 2022 | 3 | 04:59 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 11, 2022 | 1 | 09:06 | Offensive | Nick Paul |