Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 50.0% vs Roy 48.4% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 58.5%
Defensive zone
Roy 79.2%
Neutral zone
Roy 70.5%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Zibanejad
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
11
(16 meetings)
5
11
Zibanejad
Roy
Last 10: Zibanejad 4-6 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
4
5
Zibanejad
Roy
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
2
Zibanejad
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
4
Zibanejad
Roy
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (11,756)
48.7% (3,719)
+2.2%
Power Play
52.2% (1,852)
49.5% (283)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (1,796)
45.5% (477)
-3.9%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Zibanejad is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,695).
Zibanejad shoots right. Roy is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,191).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Roy
Home
51.6% (7,603)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
48.3% (7,802)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Zibanejad
Roy
P1
50.4%
50.8%
P2
49.7%
46.3%
P3
49.9%
48.1%
OT
48.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
50.0%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 11:55 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:07 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 26, 2024 | 3 | 02:11 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 26, 2024 | 1 | 06:01 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 08:16 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 08:09 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 01:14 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 1 | 13:20 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 1 | 12:53 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 1 | 06:19 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 2 | 10:25 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 19:55 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 2 | 16:19 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 1 | 09:02 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |