Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.8% vs Cates 45.5% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 62.4%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 91.8%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 83.1%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 80.1%
80.1%
19.9%
Zibanejad
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
Zibanejad
Cates
Last 10: Zibanejad 8-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Zibanejad
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
4
1
Zibanejad
Cates
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
3
1
Zibanejad
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (807)
45.5% (756)
+7.8%
Power Play
47.6% (42)
42.1% (114)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (147)
44.7% (47)
+1.6%
On even strength, Zibanejad has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (729).
Zibanejad shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Cates
Home
49.8% (466)
46.2% (468)
Away
54.0% (530)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Zibanejad
Cates
P1
52.9%
46.0%
P2
51.2%
47.5%
P3
51.7%
42.1%
OT
60.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
57.0%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2026 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 3 | 12:31 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 2 | 15:27 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 2 | 03:54 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 1 | 00:30 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 07:28 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:13 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 05:10 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 02:37 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:24 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:36 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 07:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |