Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.8% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 82.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 60.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 68.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 71.7%
28.3%
71.7%
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
6
(16 meetings)
10
6
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Last 10: Zibanejad 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
2
0
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
6
3
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (807)
55.7% (856)
-2.4%
Power Play
47.6% (42)
57.5% (233)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (147)
50.0% (144)
-3.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (729).
Zibanejad shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Home
49.8% (466)
55.5% (616)
Away
54.0% (530)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
P1
52.9%
58.1%
P2
51.2%
54.9%
P3
51.7%
53.9%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 08:18 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 14:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:49 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 13:30 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 11:33 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 17:17 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 17:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 11:05 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 14:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:06 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |