Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.8% vs Novak 42.5% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 83.4%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 65.1%
Neutral zone
Novak 53.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Zibanejad
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Zibanejad
Novak
Last 7: Zibanejad 3-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Zibanejad
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
2
1
Zibanejad
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Zibanejad
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (807)
40.4% (408)
+12.9%
Power Play
47.6% (42)
45.5% (33)
+2.1%
On even strength, Zibanejad has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (729).
Zibanejad shoots right. Novak is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Novak
Home
49.8% (466)
42.0% (212)
Away
54.0% (530)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Zibanejad
Novak
P1
52.9%
41.9%
P2
51.2%
39.3%
P3
51.7%
42.1%
OT
60.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 07:46 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 14:18 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 08:54 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 03:06 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 13:12 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 13:06 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 04:58 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |